WikimediaGiven the treacherous tax votes that state lawmakers took during this year’s regular session, many now find themselves on the defensive as the fall election season kicks into high gear.
Long-timers have certainly been in such a position before, but it’s doubtful they’ve ever had to deal with so many outside players and special interests trying to influence their races.
That’s due in large part to the evolving political landscape, where more money than ever is being dumped into elections, but it’s also attributable to the number of seats that will have fresh faces in them next year.
As of this week, there are 32 wide open seats in the House and Senate with no incumbents running for re-election. Of this count, 21 seats are vacant because of term limits.
Of the remaining 11, two lawmakers are running for higher office. The rest are trying to switch chambers, either from the House to the Senate or, in one case, a senator running for the House.
While the Louisiana Association of Business and Industry and the state chapter of Americans For Prosperity have already made big splashes in the legislative election pool with scorecards grading lawmakers’ votes, other groups are gearing up to play in the races as well.
Shipbuilding magnate Boysie Bollinger is said to be working and actively meeting with a diverse group to form a tort reform campaign initiative to influence the fall elections. In addition to donors and business types, the effort is pulling in folks linked to the state’s biggest legacy and pharmacy suits.
U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy had expressed interest earlier this year in reviving the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority, which senior U.S. Sen. David Vitter originally created to put more Republicans in the Legislature. That option is looking unlikely today, but conservative activists say Cassidy has said he wants be involved in the fall legislative elections anyway. To what extent remains to be seen.
The Louisiana Chapter of the National Federation of Independent Business is the latest to come out with its legislative scorecard, released last week. It does not bode well for lawmakers, who are already fighting low marks released by other special interests like LABI and AFP.
Based on votes from the 2014 and 2015 sessions, 27 out of 39 senators failed to achieve a score of 70 percent, which guarantees endorsement eligibility with NFIB. In the House, 54 out of 105 representatives received scores below 70 percent.
State director Dawn Starns said scoring 70 percent or above gives a candidate automatic endorsement eligibility, but NFIB’s PAC board still has to vote on the official backing. And even if a lawmaker fails to score above the benchmark, they can still submit a questionnaire to be considered for an endorsement, just like their challengers.
“We will make an announcement about incumbent endorsements the beginning of the week after qualifying,” Starns said. “We will also do candidate endorsements in some open seats and we will engage our grassroots outreach during the election cycle using the tools we have like mail, robocalls, radio and online ads.”
AFP and LABI, of course, made a great deal of noise with their respective scorecards that were released last month. LABI, in particular, served up failing grades for 94 members of the Legislature for the most recent session, but is still supporting many of them based on their four-year cumulative grades.
Likewise of interest will be how other corners of the larger business lobby will approach the fall elections. The Louisiana Mid-Continent Oil and Gas Association is promising to spend more cash than ever before and the Louisiana Chemical Association offered a teaser of sorts with a radio buy during session.
Should all of the groups listed above, plus the others on the edges, get on the same page with messaging that communicates an anti-incumbent sentiment, the legislative races could become much more interesting — not for who is on the ballot, but rather for who is playing behind the scenes.