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November turnout forecasted at 45-50 percent

by Patrick Flanagan

While bogged down with qualifying candidates last month, Secretary of State Tom Schedler didn't lose sight of the true endgame coming in November and December.

While bogged down with qualifying candidates last month, Secretary of State Tom Schedler didn't lose sight of the true endgame coming in November and December.

He said in an interview that the general election and runoff will be where the real pressure is applied. He also recalled a "common joke" that's passed down from one secretary to another in his office.

"The last thing you want to be is interviewed on the last day of an election cycle," Schedler said laughing. "They're not going to congratulate you. They're talking to you because something went wrong."

From a unique jungle primary system to a race that may decide the balance of the U.S. Senate, to one congressional race hosting an ex-con governor and another featuring a kissing incumbent, there is a great deal of interest nationally in Louisiana's 2014 elections.

"This particular cycle is going to be bigger than a presidential election," Schedler said. "Maybe not in participation, but definitely in the amount of money from outside of the state and also media scrutiny. (SOS press secretary) Meg (Casper) is getting one or two calls a week, or more, from national media asking to learn about our voting procedures, demographics and trends."

That kind of attention has Schedler on his toes and pressing hard on the folks who make elections happen on the ground, like clerks, poll workers and his staff.

"I'm telling them there is no room for error," he said. "If you need something, let's get it addressed now. Don't call me a week before the election - especially this election."

With so much drama, one might expect statewide turnout to be astronomical, but Schedler is estimating somewhere between 45 percent and 50 percent for the November general election, "leaning more toward the lower side."

The last midterm congressional cycle in 2010 saw a 44 percent turnout, while in 2006 it was a paltry 33 percent.

So far only three of the more than two dozen states around the country that have held primaries have surpassed their turnouts from four years ago.

In 2008, the last time U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu was on the ballot, turnout in Louisiana was 67 percent, but that was when she shared space with President Barack Obama.

With the federal campaigns and state parties spending unprecedented amounts of money on turnout, and sophisticated models being employed, politicos believe the 50 percent threshold can be surpassed. Then again, consultants are wondering if voters will be turned off by the coming onslaught of TV spending, particularly for the Senate race.

For the record, the all-time statewide turnout record stands at 73 percent, which was produced in 1991 by the Edwin Edwards-David Duke governor's race.

While the Democratic and Republicans parties don't want to minimize ongoing registration efforts - hundreds of new voters are supposedly being signed up for what will be a tight Senate race - both sides agree the same kind of aggressive drives seen in recent years are no longer needed.

Schedler agreed as well, noting 85 percent of Louisiana's eligible voters have been registered.

"There's not a whole lot of growth room there," he said. "I just wish we'd put as much emphasis on turnout now as we have on registration in the past."

Schedler, a Republican from Mandeville, was recently elected as the president-elect of the National Association of Secretaries of State, a position a Louisiana official has not held since the late Fox McKeithen. He takes over next year, but has been involved with the association since taking office in 2010.

One of the most significant takeaways from his national outreach, he said, has been learning just how far ahead of the curve Louisiana is, from its voting app to online voter registration.

"I think we shortchange ourselves," he said. "The Pew Foundation, ranking election systems, moved us to 18th in the country and we used be down there in the 40s with Mississippi and Arkansas. We've left them in the dirt."