Scott Jordan

The Olindo Mare of hurricane predictions

At the U.S. National Hurricane Conference yesterday, William Gray offered this telling quote : “We’re expecting an above average season. The big question we have is, are we going to raise the numbers from our December forecast? We might.”

Gray, of course, is the longtime Colorado State University forecaster whose track record in recent years has been as accurate as former New Orleans Saints kicker Olindo Mare’s 2007 field goal attempts . With something as serious as the annual hurricane season, it’s beyond me why Gray -- who’s now retired as the lead forecaster on the CSU team -- is still repeatedly cited by national media. His “system” of issuing predictions six months in advance of each hurricane season, and then continually revising them, is as useful as a political pundit who changes his election predictions as the votes come in on election night.

For the record, Gray predicted 13 tropical storms and seven named hurricanes back in December. But he might change that forecast next week. And he might change it June 1. And he might change it again after that.