Virginia-based media company Borrell Associates has released a report forecasting that political advertising in 2016 will eclipse $11.4 billion nationally, which is 20 percent higher than the last presidential cycle in 2012.
Around $50.75 will be spent per eligible voter, with every $1 out of $5 going toward presidential messaging.
In Louisiana, where there are 2.8 million registered voters, Borrell expects $22.3 million will be spent by those involved in the presidential race. The 2016 U.S. Senate race in Louisiana should produce another $9.4 million worth of political advertising and our U.S. House seats about $3.6 million.
The decrease in political advertising on broadcast television will be “breathtaking,” according to the report, with the backlash from over-exposed politicians beginning in 2017 and spending dipping below 2009 levels. But for 2016, it still leads all other categories.
“Broadcast TV is likely to continue to lose political ad share and perhaps even show, for the first time since the birth of television, a decline in political advertising dollars,” the report states. “Newspaper spending will also likely see a decline. We foresee most large metro papers ceasing daily publication within the next two to three years, shifting to three days per week. The majority of the nation’s 20,000 papers, however, continue to serve their towns and smaller cities with little change and should be viable venues for local campaign ads.”
As for the Internet, the report suggests that by next year social media sites will absorb more than half of all online political ad spending.
When coupled with any local races that might be competitive in 2016, as well as special interests and ballot initiatives, Borrell Associates predicts $31.33 will be spent in Louisiana on political advertising per eligible voter next year.